Gartner's #3 seems to be already well underway. Cost is the reason. Why shouldn't a commercial provider use open-source elements? Assuming that those elements are required, add functionality, are well established and supported - including those elements would have a positive impact on the product and cost.
Gartner's prediction;
By 2012, 80 per cent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology. Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage. Embedded open source strategies will become the minimal level of investment that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years.
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